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Obama Faces Tricky Task in Building 2012 Campaign Platform
Imagine, it's 2012. Unemployment is above 8 percent. The deficit is once again above $1 trillion. Troops are still in Afghanistan. And the post-debate over the health care law drags on, only its most popular provisions have not yet gone into effect.
For President Obama, it's a tough room to play. But that could easily be the environment he runs in to seek a second term. There's a reason so many top advisers are fleeing the White House for Chicago to start brainstorming their 2012 strategy -- they have to figure out a way, and soon, to make his controversial accomplishments palatable and re-establish trust with both moderates and the Democratic base.
Coming off his State of the Union address, the president has plenty of themes and achievements on which to run. But they all have strings attached.
"Right now I think he's in survival mode," said Brad Blakeman, a past adviser to former President George W. Bush.
Strategists say the president started to delicately craft his message Tuesday night, using his address to the nation to accentuate the positives, make a few gestures to the center and offer an upbeat vision for the future. They say he'll make the economy an inevitable cornerstone of his 2012 campaign. But how he does it, and how effective that will be, much depends on the course of the next two years -- especially since the "stimulus" of the last two years has become somewhat of a dirty word among Democrats.
"I think it's going to be contingent probably on the state of the economy," said David Lewis, political science professor at Vanderbilt University. "If the economy turns around, then his record looks a lot different, and it'll be easier to pin his re-election on his stewardship."
Otherwise, Lewis said, the president harkens back to talking about infrastructure and energy investments, while highlighting broadly popular items like government reform and, if he gets to it, the kind of tax code simplification he addressed in the State of the Union.
That could be a less compelling sell, but one his team may already be contemplating.
Congressional Budget Office projections released this week showed unemployment hovering above 8 percent on Election Day. White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley argued with aides before the State of the Union that Obama can't do much to significantly change that rate, a Democratic source told Fox News. Rather, Daley said, according to the source, that the president should adopt a more business-friendly, forward-looking tone, focusing on the value of innovation in the private sector with a helping hand from the government.
Obama may try to preserve that tone in honing his campaign's economic message.
"It's not going to be the full-out hope of 2008," said Victoria DeFrancesco Soto, an assistant political science professor at Northwestern University. But she said the message will probably be focused on "light at the end of the tunnel." She said if the economy improves, Obama will be "riding that wave hard and fast." If it doesn't, he's back to talking about how he kept things from getting worse than they are, "which is a tough one."
However, the economic component that drove Tea Party voters to the polls in November -- concern about the national debt -- has proved tough for the president to tackle. CBO pegged this year's deficit at $1.5 trillion, thanks in part to the tax-cut package pushed by Republicans and agreed-to by Obama, and warned that national debt could reach 100 percent of GDP by the end of the decade. Obama this week called for freezing some discretionary spending for five years, a proposal projected to save $400 billion over 10 years. But Republicans want to see savings in the trillions, noting that $400 billion doesn't begin to whittle away at the $14 trillion national debt.
Though Obama's fiscal commission was unable to force a floor vote last year on its recommendations to Congress, Democratic strategist Peter Fenn said Obama will probably build his fiscal message in the months ahead by picking and choosing some of those recommendations to promote -- sending a message that he's serious about the deficit.
Fenn also argued that Obama already has more economic accomplishments under his belt than some give him credit for.
"The economy isn't in freefall, it's coming back," he said, adding: "All the talk about how horrendous it was to put money into the car companies -- we saved America's manufacturing base. They're turning a profit."
And then there's health care. As Obama quipped Tuesday night, "I have heard rumors that a few of you still have concerns about our new health care law."
As a campaign issue, it will be unavoidable. Many Republicans want to repeal it, stirring a largely symbolic debate on Capitol Hill that's poised to fuel the political debate during the GOP primaries.
"This isn't going away," said Blakeman, noting that state attorneys general across the country continue to litigate it while Congress debates it.
Blakeman said Obama can try to get the upper hand in the debate by warning that, despite the flaws in the law, a Republican president in 2013 would help Republicans in Congress realize their dream of nullifying it. That jeopardizes provisions like guaranteed insurance coverage and a ban on benefits caps.
But as the town hall frenzy of late 2009 demonstrated, the health care law can be a doozy to defend and to explain. A Fox News poll released last week showed 56 percent of voters want the law repealed, compared with 39 percent who want it kept in place.
As with any campaign, several other issues are bound to creep in. Obama signaled in his State of the Union address that a push for government investment in clean-energy technology will be a priority in the second half of this term. And with public uprisings against entrenched regimes fueling a tenser-than-usual environment in the Middle East, foreign policy could emerge as a wild-card factor next year.
Plus there's the threat of $5-a-gallon gas.
If nothing else, Obama will have the option of going negative, running against the GOP nominee and warning about the monopoly Republicans could once again have on Washington if his opponent prevails.
DeFrancesco Soto said he'll surely play off the divisions that emerge during the primary, a process he'll be spared from barring an insurgent challenge from within.
But Obama's not an outsider anymore. Blakeman warned that any incumbent president has to defend his record.
"He's not going to have the luxury of having anybody to blame in 2012," Blakeman said.
2011 Oscar Nominations List
Best motion picture of the year
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Javier Bardem in “Biutiful” (Roadside Attractions)
Jeff Bridges in “True Grit” (Paramount)
Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network” (Sony Pictures Releasing)
Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
James Franco in “127 Hours” (Fox Searchlight)
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Christian Bale in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
John Hawkes in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
Jeremy Renner in “The Town” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
Geoffrey Rush in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right” (Focus Features)
Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole” (Lionsgate)
Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter’s Bone” (Roadside Attractions)
Natalie Portman in “Black Swan” (Fox Searchlight)
Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine” (The Weinstein Company)
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
Helena Bonham Carter in “The King’s Speech” (The Weinstein Company)
Melissa Leo in “The Fighter” (Paramount)
Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit” (Paramount)
Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Best animated feature film of the year
How to Train Your Dragon (Paramount) Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
The Illusionist (Sony Pictures Classics) Sylvain Chomet
Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Lee Unkrich
Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney), Robert Stromberg (Production Design), Karen O’Hara (Set Decoration)
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.), Stuart Craig (Production Design), Stephenie McMillan (Set Decoration)
Inception (Warner Bros.), Guy Hendrix Dyas (Production Design), Larry Dias and Doug Mowat (Set Decoration)
The King’s Speech (Paramount), Eve Stewart (Production Design), Judy Farr (Set Decoration)
True Grit (Paramount), Jess Gonchor (Production Design), Nancy Haigh (Set Decoration)
Achievement in Cinematography
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Matthew Libatique
Inception (Warner Bros.) Wally Pfister
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Danny Cohen
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeff Cronenweth
True Grit (Paramount) Roger Deakins
Achievement in costume design
Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Colleen Atwood
I Am Love (Magnolia Pictures) Antonella Cannarozzi
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Jenny Beavan
The Tempest (Miramax) Sandy Powell
True Grit (Paramount) Mary Zophres
Achievement in directing
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight), Darren Aronofsky
The Fighter (Paramount), David O. Russell
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Tom Hooper
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), David Fincher
True Grit (Paramount), Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Best Documentary Feature
Exit through the Gift Shop (Producers Distribution Agency) Banksy and Jaimie D’Cruz A Paranoid Pictures Production
Gasland Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic A Gasland Production
Inside Job (Sony Pictures Classics) Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs A Representational Pictures Production
Restrepo (National Geographic Entertainment) Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger An Outpost Films Production
Waste Land Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley (Arthouse Films) An Almega Projects Production
Best documentary short subject
Killing in the Name Nominees to be determined A Moxie Firecracker Films Production
Poster Girl Nominees to be determined A Portrayal Films Production
Strangers No More Karen Goodman and Kirk Simon A Simon & Goodman Picture Company Production
Sun Come Up Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger A Sun Come Up Production
The Warriors of Qiugang Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon A Thomas Lennon Films Production
Achievement in film editing
Black Swan (Fox Searchlight) Andrew Weisblum
The Fighter Paramount Pamela Martin
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Tariq Anwar
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Jon Harris
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter
Best foreign language film of the year
Biutiful Mexico
Dogtooth Greece
In a Better World Denmark
Incendies Canada
Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi) Algeria
Achievement in makeup
Achievement in makeup (Sony Pictures Classics) Adrien Morot
The Way Back (Newmarket Films in association with Wrekin Hill Entertainment and Image Entertainment) Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng
The Wolfman (Universal) Rick Baker and Dave Elsey
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
How to Train Your Dragon (Paramount) John Powell
Inception (Warner Bros.) Hans Zimmer
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Alexandre Desplat
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) A.R. Rahman
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
Coming Home from Country Strong (Sony Pictures Releasing (Screen Gems)) Music and Lyric by Tom Douglas, Troy Verges and Hillary Lindsey
I See the Light from Tangled (Walt Disney) Music by Alan Menken Lyric by Glenn Slater
If I Rise from 127 Hours (Fox Searchlight) Music by A.R. Rahman Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong
We Belong Together from Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Music and Lyric by Randy Newman
Best animated short film
Day & Night (Walt Disney) A Pixar Animation Studios Production Teddy Newton
The Gruffalo A Magic Light Pictures Production Jakob Schuh and Max Lang
Let’s Pollute A Geefwee Boedoe Production Geefwee Boedoe
The Lost Thing (Nick Batzias for Madman Entertainment) A Passion Pictures Australia Production Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann
Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary) A Sacrebleu Production Bastien Dubois
Best live action short film
The Confession (National Film and Television School) A National Film and Television School Production Tanel Toom
The Crush (Network Ireland Television) A Purdy Pictures Production Michael Creagh
God of Love A Luke Matheny Production Luke Matheny
Na Wewe (Premium Films) A CUT! Production Ivan Goldschmidt
Wish 143 A Swing and Shift Films/Union Pictures Production Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite
Achievement in sound editing
Inception (Warner Bros.) Richard King
Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney) Tom Myers and Michael Silvers
Tron: Legacy (Walt Disney) Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague
True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey
Unstoppable (20th Century Fox) Mark P. Stoeckinger
Achievement in sound mixing
Inception (Warner Bros.) Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company) Paul Hamblin, Martin Jensen and John Midgley
Salt (Sony Pictures Releasing) Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing) Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick and Mark Weingarten
True Grit (Paramount) Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Achievement in visual effects
Alice in Wonderland (Walt Disney) Ken Ralston, David Schaub, Carey Villegas and Sean Phillips
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 (Warner Bros.) Tim Burke, John Richardson, Christian Manz and Nicolas Aithadi
Hereafter (Warner Bros.) Michael Owens, Bryan Grill, Stephan Trojanski and Joe Farrell
Inception (Warner Bros.) Paul Franklin, Chris Corbould, Andrew Lockley and Peter Bebb
Iron Man 2 (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment, Distributed by Paramount) Janek Sirrs, Ben Snow, Ged Wright and Daniel Sudick
Adapted screenplay
127 Hours (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
The Social Network (Sony Pictures Releasing), Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
Toy Story 3 (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Michael Arndt. Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
True Grit (Paramount), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
Winter’s Bone (Roadside Attractions), Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Original screenplay
Another Year (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Mike Leigh
The Fighter (Paramount), Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson. Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson
Inception (Warner Bros.), Written by Christopher Nolan
The Kids Are All Right (Focus Features), Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
The King’s Speech (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Seidler
Snowfall in Jammu Hills
witnessed the first snowfall at the world famous Mata Vaishno Devi Shrine on the Trikuta hills near Katra, even as the entire region continued to reel under intense cold wave.
"There were heavy rains at the Shrine last evening before it started snowing on the upper reaches. Bhairon Ghati is covered with snow", said a police official at the Bhawan.
While the upper reaches experienced snowfall, the lower areas of the region witnessed heavy rains since yesterday, thereby bringing the day temperature down to 17.2 degrees Celsius, 6.1 degrees below normal, according to the Met sources.
Although people here preferred to stay indoors, there was, however, not much difference in the number of pilgrims reaching the holy cave Shrine to pay obeisance, they added.
Reports said, famous hill resort of Patnitop also witnessed season's first snowfall.
From the daily KASHMIR TIMES
Another Winter Storm Wallops the Northeast
First Thoughts: External affairs
Turning to the emerging 2012 presidential race, Mitt Romney last night took a shot at Obama on FOX. “He’s trying awfully hard,” Romney said of the president, per the Boston Globe. “The problem is, he just doesn’t know what to do.” Romney also said “it was important for the field to have a businessman,’ the Globe continues. “’I don’t know who all is going to get in the race, but I do believe that it would be helpful if at least one of the people who’s running in the Republican field had extensive experience in the private sector – in small business, in big business,’ he said.”
*** Daniels picks college hoops over the State of the Union:
As we’ve written before, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has given many mixed signals about his White House intentions. On the one hand, he’s made it clear that his family isn’t interested with the scrutiny that comes with a presidential campaign. On the other hand, Daniels has worked to increase his national profile. Well, file this under the he-probably-won’t-run column: While touring a middle school yesterday, Daniels admitted to a reporter that he hadn’t watched President Obama give the State of the Union address, opting rather to watch the Purdue-Ohio State basketball game. “You caught me. I didn’t watch it. I was watching the Purdue game as long as it was watchable,” he said.
Countdown Chicago’s mayoral election: 26 days
Countdown to Election Day 2011: 285 days
Countdown to the Iowa caucuses: 375 days
First Dog Bo Obama
Putin Promises Revenge in Moscow Bombing
Obama's State of the Union Gets Positive Reactions
Snow blankets Northeast, NY vows to improve clean-up
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Northeast dug out of yet another winter storm on Thursday that pummeled the region with unexpectedly heavy snowfall, making January the snowiest month in New York in more than 85 years.
In Central Park, 19 inches of snow fell overnight in the storm that forced airports and schools to close. The wet snow fell at dizzying speeds during the height of the storm, as much as three inches per hour, said Weather Channel meteorologists.
New York officials vowed to keep the city running after Mayor Michael Bloomberg, agency heads and municipal workers came under heavy criticism for the slow response to the Christmas weekend blizzard that brought services to a halt.
"We learn," said Bloomberg at a City Hall news conference on Thursday. "We asked the questions of what didn't work last time and whether there's anything we could do differently."
The city suspended bus service shortly after midnight, he noted. In the Christmas blizzard, 600 city buses became stranded but with this suspension, almost no buses were stranded on Thursday, the mayor said.
Bus service was gradually being restored at midday.
Some 1,700 plows were working as of mid-morning in New York, the mayor said. About 1,500 day laborers were shoveling out bus stops as well.
"Our expectation is that by tomorrow morning's rush hour all of the city streets and roadways will have been plowed," Bloomberg said.
The storm, which dropped twice as much snow as had been predicted, brought the city's January total accumulation to 36 inches, breaking a record from 1925, the mayor said.
"This is so much worse than I think we all expected," said Julia Scharf, 27, a dental technician who commuted to New York from Bethpage, Long Island.
"I had to clean about 15 or so inches off my car before I could drive to the train station."
Commuter train and bus service from some suburbs, including Long Island, was limited or suspended. New York City schools were closed, only the ninth time since 1978 that schools were closed due to snow, the mayor said.
Flight delays of more than two hours were reported at Newark International and John F. Kennedy International airports, which had been closed due to the storm but reopened on Thursday morning, authorities said.
Delays were reported at Philadelphia International Airport where hundreds of flights were canceled due to snowfall that ranged from 12 to 17 inches in the city. About 1,500 passengers were stranded overnight, authorities said.
Nine people spent nine hours on a bus stuck in the snow in Philadelphia, said Jerri Williams, a spokeswoman for the Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority.
Most passengers got off the bus but those nine and the driver chose to remain rather than brave the elements, she said. The bus was heated, she noted.
"Their only choice was to stay on the bus," she said.
About 15,000 households south and west of Philadelphia lost power as tree limbs broke under the weight of wet snow and fell on power lines, according to the utility Peco.
In the Washington, D.C., area some commuters were stranded for several hours in massive traffic jams on Wednesday that stretched well into the night. Adding to the chaos were hundreds of cars abandoned on the roads by their drivers.
Although traffic improved in the morning, tens of thousands were without power in parts of the city and surrounding suburbs, mostly due to snow-laden trees downing utility lines. Many schools were closed throughout the area.
A second runway at Boston's Logan International Airport was closed, said spokesman Phil Orlandella.
The 9.9 inches of snow recorded at the Boston airport during the storm contributed to nearly 200 inbound and outbound flight cancellations, he said.
The National Weather Service said 19 inches of snow fell in Central Park, nearly 19 inches at Newark Airport and 18 inches in suburban New Canaan, Connecticut.
The snowfall was just shy of the Christmas blizzard that dropped 20 inches on New York City.
Amtrak suspended trains between New York and Boston but was resuming service, with delays likely, it said.
North of Boston, snow accumulation contributed to a partial roof collapse that trapped two people in a vehicle parked inside a building in Lynn, Mass., officials said. Initial reports showed the two had no serious injuries.
In weather-related deaths, a woman was struck and killed by a snowplow on Wednesday in Center Moriches, New York.
Police said the 64-year-old woman was walking in a parking lot mid-afternoon when she was hit by a truck clearing snow.
(Additional reporting by Lauren Keiper in Boston, Jon Hurdle in Philadelphia, and Bernd Debusmann Jr. and Daniel Trotta in New York; Editing by Jerry Norton)